Eichengreen et al. (2020) are trying to predict whether the current pandemic will enhance people’s trust in science in the long-run by analysing how living through an epidemic has affected people’s attitudes in the past. They find that experiencing an epidemic during the “impressionable years” of 18 to 25 significantly reduced those persons’ trust in science later in life.
Epidemics have a long-term impact on people's world perception
Without a doubt, the Covid-19 pandemic has had and continues to have detrimental effects on people’s lives and the global economy. However, one of the potential positive outcomes is an enhanced trust in science as the world realizes the importance of scientific research for finding treatments and vaccines against Covid-19. In order to predict whether the pandemic could, indeed, increase people’s trust in science in the long-run, Eichengreen, Aksoy and Saka (2020) matched data from a recent global opinion poll by the Wellcome Trust with data on global epidemics since 1970. They find that respondents who had experienced an epidemic in their “impressionable years”, meaning between the age of 18 and 25, are, on average, 11 percent less likely to trust scientists than those who had not. The effect they find is not a general decline in trust in science, but only in scientists, specifically, those researching healthcare-related issues.
Why does epidemic exposure diminish trust in scientists?
The researchers argue that the reason for the decrease in trust is due to the sudden surge of public interest in scientific research during an epidemic. During such a crisis, the scientific community is under a lot of pressure to produce results quickly. Often, previous assumptions have to be corrected along the way. While this is common practice in the scientific learning process, the public does not usually notice it. Especially people who do not usually engage with science may be confused by contradictory statements and, as a result, start doubting scientists. Indeed, Eichengreen et al. find that it is the people with little science education driving the results.
What consequences could this effect have?
The authors find that people’s attitude towards scientists has implications for their behaviour as well. Individuals exposed to epidemics during their impressionable years were more likely to have negative attitudes towards vaccination and less likely to vaccinate their children. This finding points to the importance of science education in general and broad science communication in the current pandemic.
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